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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar will be 1.08 in 2024 and 1.06 in 2025, 2026 and 2027.Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)European Central Bank President Lagarde: We must be very cautious. European Central Bank President Lagarde: We must be very cautious because service prices and wages are rising rapidly. Financial difficulties are self-created uncertainties.

US National Security Adviser Sullivan: We are seeking to reach a hostage release agreement and cease fire; Ceasefire and hostage agreement will begin to bring hostages home and greatly increase aid to Gaza.The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.According to statistics, on December 12th, as of press time, five A-share listed companies including Alaide, Zhongzhong Technology, Yiwang Yichuang, Crystal Optoelectronics and Decai Co., Ltd. disclosed their holdings.

The yield of Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points to 3.28%, the highest level since December 2.US National Security Adviser Sullivan: Sweden is conducting in-depth consultations with Israel on the Syrian issue.Unica: In the second half of November, the sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 1.084 million tons. According to UNICA, the sugar production in central and southern Brazil reached 1.084 million tons in the second half of November, which was 23% lower than the same period last year. The amount of sugarcane crushed was 20.35 million tons, down by 15.2% compared with the same period of last year. Ethanol production was 1.19 billion liters, down 5.18% year-on-year. 44.89% of sugarcane juice was used for sugar production, compared with 46.54% in the same period of last year.